VIETNAM 2026 – INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK

As we conclude 2025, Vietnam is entering the “Era of rising up”, marked by impressive milestones in its economy and industrial property, alongside key sectors that continue to attract robust FDI. While the government remains attempting to achieve even more ambitious targets, the investment landscape is shifting toward Ready-built factories (RBF) and Ready-built warehouses (RBW) to optimize speed-to-market while ensuring full compliance with evolving policies and environmental standards. 

To provide a deeper analysis of the Vietnamese economy, highlight prospects and core industries, this outlook offers key insights into the Vietnam market outlook 2025-2026. 

I. OVERALL

1. Macro snapshot 2025 

• GDP: Vietnam ended the year with 8.02% GDP growth, peaking at 8.46% in Q4/2025. Total GDP is estimated at US$514B, confirming a period of strong economic acceleration.  

• GDP per capita: At US$5,026, Vietnam is steadily moving toward upper-middle-income threshold.  

• Inflation (CPI avg.): While inflation rose to 3.31%, it remained within policy target range, reflecting effective government price controls, sustaining consumer purchasing power and mitigating risks for FDI inflows.  

• Trade momentum: Total trade reached an estimated US$920B, with exports increasing by 15.9% YoY and imports by 18% YoY.  

2. FDI engine 

• Total registered FDI: US$38.42B 

• Disbursed FDI: Reached US$27.62B, increasing by 9% YoY, hitting a 5-year high.  

• New projects: Recorded 4,054 new projects in 2025, with a newly registered capital totaling US$17.32B.  

3. 2026 outlook  

• Government target: ≥10% GDP growth, driven by accelerated infrastructure development, including major rail/port/airport upgrades and cross-border connectivity projects progressing.  

• Vietnam’s four competitiveness anchors: 

• Trade integration: 16 implemented FTAs, provide access to over 60 countries, representing 60% of the global GDP, offering tariff advantages and supply chain resilience.  

• Logistics backbone: 34 port zones nationwide 

• Air connectivity: 22 active airports, featuring critical gateways like Noi Bai, Tan Son Nhat and the future Long Thanh.  

• Industrial workforce: Approximately 17.3–17.5M employed in industry & construction with a workforce capable of meeting large-scale production demands.  

4. Top sectors  

• Manufacturing and processing: US$9.8B (56.5% of total)  

• Real estate: US$3.67B (21.2%) 

5. Top investors  

• Singapore: US$4.84B (+27.9%) 

• China: US$3.64B (~21%) 

• Hong Kong: US$1.73B (+10%) 

II. KEY SECTORS

1. Industrial property 

Market overview 

• Registered FDI: US$33.7B, Vietnam is viewed as a top-tier destination for “China +1” strategy and a focal point for global supply chain diversification.  

• Disbursed FDI: US$23.6B (5-year high)  

• Impact: This momentum drives demands for logistics, industrial property, and FMCG services, boosting jobs creation and household income. 

Occupancy & Absorption 

• Ready built factory occupancy: ~88% (South: ~92% | North: ~87%) 

• Industrial zone occupancy (nationwide): 80–85% 

• Net land absorption (9M/2025): Estimated ~7,180 ha, reflecting the demand for manufacturing expansion. 

• Occupancy costs: 

• RBF rent: ~US$5.5/m²/month 

• RBW rent: ~US$4.7–5.0/m²/month 

Investor insights 

• “Speed-to-market” has become the top 1 competitive advantage because investors increasingly prefer RBFs, which allow for a 3-6-month setup compared to 18-24+ months required for Greenfield builds. This is best fit for FMCG, export manufacturers, and fast relocation timelines.  

• Most demanded formats: 

• Ready-built factories & warehouses (RBF/RBW), rising due to lower upfront CAPEX, faster licensing, fire safety, and ESG standards 

• Build-to-suit manufacturing (BTS) 

• Green/ ESG-certified facilities 

• Regional demand: The South in Vietnam has tight occupancy and deepest supplier ecosystem, while the North is driven by electronics demand and export clusters.   

2. Manufacturing and processing 

Market overview  

• Sector performance: The industry and construction sector grew by 8.95% in 2025.  

• Industrial momentum: Manufacturing and processing grew approximately 10.3% in early 2025, driving overall industrial production.  

• Labor productivity: Reached an estimated US$9.809 per worker, enhancing technical skills and greater efficiency in machinery and automation.  

Demand engines 

• Trade multiplier: Total trade reached US$930.05B (an 18.2% YoY increase) with factory demand driven by high-tech subsectors, especially electronics & high-tech manufacturing.  

• Quality FDI: FDI inflows are prioritizing quality over quantity. Manufacturing & processing attracted US$9.8B, accounting for 56.5% of newly registered FDI capital. 

• Key demand drivers: speed for RBF, customization for BTS, Green-certified facilities. 

• Strategic advantage: Vietnam is leveraging global green compliance requirements through its network of 19 FTAs, covering roughly 87% of the world economy and green growth strategy, which reinforce the shift toward a low-carbon and efficient industrial landscape.  

3. FMCG (Fast-moving consumer goods) 

• Market valuation: US$24B – US$28B.  

• Total retail market: Reached $309.7B in 2025 and is projected to double by 2030 (US$547B), signaling Vietnam is becoming a high-consumption nation.  

• Digital transformation: E-commerce is the fastest-growing segment of the economy, surging by 22.3% YoY, with average monthly online spend has reached US$1.29B. 

• Trade value: totaled approximately US$930B, strongly develop despite tariff fluctuations. 

• Market demand: Prefer buildings that meet strict safety, health, and green standards.  

4. Logistics and distribution 

Market overview  

• Strategic growth: Logistics has emerged as a key strategic industry with a market size of US$45-50B, expanding at 14-16% annually. It is currently one of the fastest growing logistics markets in ASEAN.  

• Cost optimization: This sector is facing high operational costs, estimated at 16-20% GDP. The government aims to reduce to 12-15% by 2030, driven by enhancing infrastructure and digital transformation.  

• Tenant requirements: Rapid setup, high-throughput design and integrated value-added services.  

Regional hotspots  

• South (HCMC–Binh Duong–Dong Nai): As the nation’s largest consumption base and primary export gateway, this is an ideal location for regional distribution centers (RDCs).  

• North (Bac Ninh–Hai Phong–Hung Yen): Led by electronics logistics and port-linked warehousing, supporting major manufacturing clusters.  

• Central Vietnam: Evolving into a secondary logistics hub and a critical emerging transit point for domestic and cross-border trade.  

5. Data Centers 

Market Overview  

• Data Centers market: Valued between US$1.1B and US$1.3B in 2025 and is projected to reach between US$3.5B and US$4B in 2030, positioning Vietnam as a primary Southeast Asian digital hub.   

• Economic contribution: 14% of the national GDP and is expected to maintain a high annual growth rate of 22-25%, fueling the demand for domestic sever infrastructure.  

Digital infrastructure surge  

• Capital inflow trends: Foreign capital is flowing into Data Centers, Cloud, and digital infrastructure parks.  

• Policy tailwinds: New data localization laws and more transparent licensing frameworks are increasing the demand for domestic sever infrastructure.  

• Technological scaling: Vietnam is upgrading its infrastructure for AI and Big Data. Average power density has surged from 6-10 kW/rack to over 15kW/rack.  

• Sustainability standards: Tenants require the use of renewable energy and energy-efficient, LEED certified designs to meet ESG and global environmental standards.  

6. Pharmaceutical and cosmetics  

Market overview  

• Market valuation: The market is projected to reach US$8B by 2026, maintaining a CAGR of 6-8% through 2030.  

• Regional ranking: The sector ranks 4th in Southeast Asia, with export values reaching US$312M and FDI contributions totaling US$230M.  

• Consumer drivers: The cosmetics and personal care segment is seeing high-single-digit growth. This is fueled by rapid urbanization and premiumization, rising disposable incomes drive consumer spending on wellness and beauty. 

Production capacity  

• Vietnam’s pharmaceutical sector comprises 243 WHO-GMP certified factories, including 29 high-standard facilities that meet EU-GMP and PIC/S-GMP requirements. 

• Domestics covers 13/13 WHO essential drug groups. 

• Vietnam produces 11/12 vaccines required for national immunization program. 

III. ABOUT IDEC GROUP ASIA

Vietnam marked 2025 as a significant economic milestone with rising demand for Speed-to-market, Ready-built and Build-to-suit facilities that meet the global ESG and environmental standards, opening a wide range of opportunities for businesses and investors.  

At IDEC Group Asia, we support manufacturers, logistics operators, and investors through Build-to-Suit (BTS), Design & Build solutions, helping them assess feasibility, manage risk, and deliver future-ready assets aligned with operational and ESG requirements. 

If you are looking to expand, relocate or invest in Vietnam or Asia, we invite you to connect with our team to support your next phase of growth.